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Tuesday, August 4, 2009

Obama’s Political Trajectory

Obama’s Political Trajectory

July certainly proved that the Obama honeymoon with the American people is over.  Over the past 50 years, nearly every President has had a higher approval rating at this point in their presidency by the American people than does President Obama.  What a fall!  He was elected overwhelmingly as President, only to tumble to record lows in disapproval ratings with the economy, with his health program, with his foreign policy, and with seemingly everything.

As of this writing, his government take-over of health care, his cap and trade (better written as cap and tax) program to curb scientifically questionable climate change, his take-over of General Motors, his support of a dictator in Honduras (as well as kowtowing to assorted other dictators in Venezuela and around the globe), his endless spending programs, bail-outs galore, high taxes (including the middle class), and giving more power to union bosses are all in disrepute by the American people.

The reason?  The American people are beginning to think they were conned by a politician who promised tax cuts but is instead delivering tax hikes.  They feel deceived by a politician who promised to balance the budget but has instead broken the budget by spending trillions of dollars we don’t have.  They voted by for a post-racial President who expressed his own racism by attacking police officers without knowing any of the facts.  They were assured of an economic recovery with shrinking unemployment, only to see unemployment soar after a questionable “stimulus” package laden with Congressional pork directed primarily toward Districts that voted for Obama.  They were promised bipartisanship and instead have witnessed the most partisan Presidency in history.

If President Obama continues to push his radical agenda, he will be a one term President.  He can recover, but only by backing off these unpopular programs and moving back toward the center.  If not, our economic woes will increase as we face skyrocketing inflation followed by high interest rates and a further slow-down in the economy.  That’s just Economics 101.  You can’t tax or spend your way into prosperity. 

If any one of his marquee programs stumbles, i.e. universal medical care, cap and trade, union card check, they are likely to all collapse.  There’s a herd instinct in Congress when it comes to political survival and it’s called “every man for himself.”  It has absolutely nothing to do with political philosophy or political party.  Getting re-elected to the next term takes priority over every other consideration by Congressmen and Senators.

Should Republicans sweep the statewide offices in Virginia and New Jersey in the off-year elections, the hand writing will be on the wall and Democrats in marginal Congressional districts will be running away from President Obama and all of his policies.

Unless Obama changes course, 2010 and 2012 could turn into a rout by the Republicans.  But, to be sure, there’s a political eternity between now and 2012 and anything can happen.  The GOP has to find good candidates for 2010, nationalize that election with a new contract with America, find a winning conservative candidate for President in 2012 and, along the way, raise millions of dollars and successfully play catch-up in political technology in order to win.  Should the Republicans do this, and should Obama fail to move back toward the center, his political trajectory will be down and out in one.

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