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Thursday, June 7, 2012

In Denial

We are told that there are six stages in the grief process—shock, denial, anger, bargaining, depression, and finally, acceptance of reality. Ever since the 2010 election, liberals and Democrats (a redundancy, I know) have been in denial. First, they were shocked by the outcome of the 2010 election. They couldn’t believe what happened. They said the voters did not understand. They said the uninformed citizens of America had a tantrum. Senator Harry Reid, leader of the US Senate, called tea party members who believe in Constitutional government radicals. Then the news media called the tea party folks racists. They were called dangerous.

Then came the denial stage. It wasn’t a sea change election of voter anger with politicians who had passed Obamacare against the wishes of 70% of the American people, it was just a “throw the incumbents out” election due to the fact that the economy was in the tank. In other words, it was a mindless “throw the rascals out” sentiment that caused Democrat losses. The Democrats and the media studiously ignored the fact that it wasn’t just a landslide victory for the Republicans in the House of Representatives, with the GOP making great gains in the Senate, it was a devastating top-to-bottom Democrat shellacking.

Found on the back pages of the newspapers was the grudging reporting of the fact that the Republicans and especially conservatives gained more than 700 seats in the state legislatures, they captured multiple governorships, and they elected Republican majorities in city council and county government races in long held safe Democratic strongholds. In Buchanan County, Missouri, Republicans had never held a majority of offices. In 2010 they won every contested race. In North Carolina the GOP had never had control of the state legislature until 2010. The scope and depth of the 2010 election victory by the GOP was similar in scope to the 1930 election victory by the Democrats. More important, it wasn’t just a Republican victory, it was a clear conservative victory. In race after race for the US Senate and the US House, liberal RINO Republicans were replaced in primaries by stout conservative Republicans in the mold of Representative Michele Bachmann and Senator Jim DeMint.

To put it into perspective, in 1928 Republican Herbert Hoover was elected in a landslide with 58.2% of the popular vote and 83.6% of the electoral vote. It was a smashing victory, but it was also the end of an era of Republican dominance. For the remainder of the 20th century, with only a few exceptions (most notably the Reagan era) the Democratic Party and the liberal ideology has dominated public policy.

In November of 2008 Barack Obama was elected President with 52.9% of the popular vote and 67.8% of the electoral vote. The Democrats gained 21 additional seats in the House and 7 additional seats in the Senate giving them a super majority and ensuring they could pass whatever legislation they wished, including socialized medicine, under the moniker Obamacare.

There are great parallels to the sea change elections of 1930 and 1932 to those of 2010 and 2012. In October of 1929 the stock market crashed and in 1930 the Democrats gained 52 seats in the United States House of Representatives. In 2010, after Obamacare was passed with some extra-parliamentary maneuvers, the Republicans gained 63 seats in the House of Representatives. In 1932, with Franklin D. Roosevelt at the head of the ticket, the Democrats gained more than 100 additional seats in the House of Representatives, putting them almost permanently in the public policy driver’s seat, with control of both the US Senate and the US House of Representatives.

In 1932 the Democrats completed the top to bottom sweep that began in 1930. The Republican Party was rejected by the American people from the courthouse to the White House. Republicans were in full retreat and liberalism was for the first time in American history advancing on every front. It had made a cameo appearance with the election of Woodrow Wilson in 1912 who won 41.8% of the popular vote thanks to a split in the Republican Party led by Theodore Roosevelt. Wilson’s election was in many ways similar to the election of Bill Clinton in 1992, who received just 43% of the popular vote. Like Wilson before him, Clinton benefited by a split Republican vote due to the third party candidacy of Ross Perot.

I believe the liberal ideology and the Democratic Party reached its apogee with the election of Barack Obama in 2008. By overreaching and exposing their redistributionist agenda, the Democrats exposed their true colors as Marxist wannabes. The Democrats spent with abandon, taking the nation to the brink of bankruptcy. For the first time in history, Standard and Poors downgraded US Bonds from AAA to AA+. It wasn’t quite junk bond status, but it was on the road to it.

In response to their poor stewardship, the American people revolted at the ballot box in 2010. But even after the results were in, the Democrats were still in denial about the tea party revolt and the sea change losses of 2010. They rationalized that the downgrade was due solely to the reluctance of tea party members of congress to increase the debt ceiling. By the time 2011 rolled around, the Democrats had convinced themselves that 2010 was just a “change election” and that 2012 would be another “change election” with Nancy Pelosi back in charge as Speaker of the House of Representatives, and the Democrats hanging on to their majority in the US Senate. They announced that the tea party was dead and that it had been replaced by the “occupy” revolt that was the true wave of the future. From reading the newspaper and watching TV, the 2010 election never happened, it was just a mirage and things would be back to normal with the Democrats in control again after 2012.

But as grief counselors will tell you, just denying something doesn’t make it reality. The huge victory achieved by Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker this week is a harbinger of what’s ahead for the Democrats in November 2012. Remember this is Wisconsin, one of the most liberal states in the nation. This is the state where radicals blew up a building and killed a graduate student in the 1960s, it is the home of Russ Feingold, Tammy Baldwin, and scores of nutty liberal professors. After spending tens of millions of dollars to recall state senators and to recall Governor Walker the liberals are still in denial. It just can’t be true. The Republicans outspent us, it was outside money, etc. They can’t accept the fact that their liberal ideology is unpopular with the American people, even in Wisconsin!

The next step in the grief process will come on November 7, the day after the election. Dick Morris did a study of the uncommitted vote in presidential elections over the past 50+ years. What he found is that with the exception of Ronald Reagan in 1984, there was a consistent pattern. The challenger to an incumbent President received all of the undecided vote in every election. In fact, in one case, the challenger received all of the undecided vote plus 2% of the vote leaning toward the incumbent.

There is absolutely no reason to believe that the 2012 election will not follow this same pattern, especially after the results of the Scott Walker recall election in Wisconsin. Using the current poll results and applying this criterion, Barack Obama will win just 10 states plus the District of Columbia in 2012. Mitt Romney will win 40 states in a landslide election gaining more than 55% of the popular vote. Even the 10 state win for Obama is shaky. Amazingly, New York State is in play with Obama having just a .5% edge over Romney.

Following the election pattern of FDR’s sweeping victory in 1932, the Romney victory is sure to have a strong down ticket pull. It will likely to add Republican seats in the US House, achieve a near super majority in the US Senate, pick up seats in state legislatures, elect more Republican Governors, and elect more Republican majorities in city and county governments. More importantly, it will spell the end of the disastrous liberal era in American politics.

And on Wednesday, November 7, the next step in the grief process will begin for the Democrats—anger. Liberals already seem to have a tendency toward anger and unhappiness. Losing an election and losing control may well put them over the edge. In Wisconsin there are online threats to assassinate Governor Walker. The left seems to be comfortable with violence. They rationalize it and excuse it when it is directed at conservatives. The anger will be followed quickly by the next step in the grief process—bargaining. The Democrats and their steadfast allies in the news media will plead that it is the responsible thing for Republicans to do to compromise with the Democrats. It’s never the responsibility of Democrats to compromise, but it’s always the responsibility of Republicans to compromise.

After the bargaining fails, Democrats and liberals will suffer from depression, the penultimate stage in the grief process. Can it really be true that the American people reject our redistributionist philosophy? Do Americans really believe in opportunity, not government guaranteed results? Are Americans really more conservative in their outlook than they are liberal? Do they really reject catastrophic man caused climate change? Do they really believe in God?

Finally, reality will set in. It really is over. The 90 year illusion that citizens can receive something for nothing without losing individual freedom will come to a close. The reality that imperfect people cannot create a perfect society, as our Founders well understood, will penetrate the consciousness of informed Americans. It won’t be a perfect country or an ideal country, but it will be once again a shining city on a hill holding aloft the lamp of freedom to the world. Prosperity, faith, personal compassion, racial harmony, and opportunity for all Americans will have an opportunity to become reality in the new American century.

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