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Thursday, July 19, 2012

Handicapping the Presidential Election

Polls, polls and more polls.  It seems that in this election year the polls are the news and the candidate’s positions on the issues are secondary.  Romney is accused of not having an economic plan, and Obama is…well, Obama the Great.  We’re told that any attacks on Obama are racist, and Obama himself assures us that “everything is fine in the private sector.”
Venture capitalism that fuels startup corporations and results in tens of thousands of new workers is attacked because Romney was President of Bain Capital, a venture capitalist firm.  Indeed, the very idea of profits is attacked and disparaged even though free enterprise has proven that it is the most powerful economic engine in the history of the world, bringing unprecedented opportunity to all.  Socialism, that has a perfect record of creating widespread economic distress, is hailed as a promise of universal prosperity and security. It is a world turned upside down with logic becoming foolishness and foolishness becoming sense.
Judges’ who took a singular oath to uphold the Constitution of the United States, rely on stare decisis rather than the original intent of those who drafted the Constitution.  Too many self-important, pseudo intellectual judges, and elected officials put themselves above the law because they think they are smarter and wiser than the Founders.  Which one of them can say with a straight face that any one of those who voted for ratification of the US Constitution would agree that Obamacare (and other similar socialistic schemes) fit within the enumerated limits of federal power over American citizens and sovereign states?
The issue of transparency is another case of double standards.  The President who refuses to release his college transcripts, and withheld a copy of his birth certificate for three years, declares executive privilege in regard to the release of documents identifying the source of the deadly Fast and Furious scandal.  This same president ignores the Constitution and Congress and acts outside the law with the full support of a compliant news media.  With unbelievable chutzpa he attacks Romney as the most secretive candidate for President in the history of the United States.  It makes your head spin.
The media demands every little detail of Romney’s life going back to when he was a teenager.  Yet this same media studiously ignores the web of close ties that Obama has had throughout his life with radicals including domestic terrorists like Bill Ayres and Bernadine Dohrn, anti-American confidents like the Reverend Jeremiah Wright, and mentors such as Frank Marshall Davis, a Communist with a capital C.
So, in this crazy election year, with all but the Fox News Channel pimping for the imperial presidency of President Barack Obama, where does the race stand?  Only polls of likely voters mean anything.  Of course, these polls don’t include all the dead people in Cook County, Illinois that will be voting in November or the voter fraud and theft that will be occurring across the US on Election Day.  It is almost laughable to hear US Attorney General Eric Holder condemn ballot protection measures as racist.  It’s a lie and he knows it.  The only problem Eric Holder and the White House have with requiring a government issued ID to vote is that it makes stealing an election harder.
No matter how you slice it, President Obama is in deep trouble.  The bottom line is that he must be above 50% in likely voter polls by the first of November or he is a political dead duck.  It’s a near historic impossibility for him to get any of the undecided vote.  Historically, challengers to an incumbent President have gotten all of the undecided vote over the past 40 years, with the singular exception of Ronald Reagan.  In fact, in one instance the challenger received all of the undecided vote, plus 2% of the vote leading toward the incumbent.
But what about the much heralded “swing” states of Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, and Ohio. 
Let’s look at these states one at a time:
Right now there is a much ballyhooed poll sponsored by The Washington Post showing Barack Obama with a 51 – 44 lead over Mitt Romney in Virginia.  There are several problems with this poll.  First, the GOP swept the state in 2009 and nothing has changed politically in Virginia since that time.  Moreover, unemployment in Southwest Virginia is still above 15%.  Second, the poll is of registered voters only, not likely voters.  Frankly, that makes this poll next to meaningless.  Third, even if the poll is true and Romney gets all the undecided vote, the race would be a dead heat and within the margin of error of victory.  Rasmussen, a much more reliable pollster, currently has the race at 47% to 47%.  That’s bad news for Obama.  With the exception of 2008, Virginia has voted Republican for 44 straight years.  It looks very encouraging for Romney.
This is a must win state for Obama, especially if he loses Virginia.  Right now Rasmussen has the race at 47% to 44% in favor of Romney.  If that 9% undecided vote goes to Romney, he will win by a landslide in North Carolina.  The situation is very bleak for Obama in North Carolina.  The Democrats are holding their convention in Charlotte because they thought it would give their guy a boost, but most of the Dem pols are writing North Carolina off.  With Obama coming out for gay marriage just a few days after the voters of North Carolina rejected gay marriage by more than 65%, it’s clear his ship is sinking in this state.  Romney will win North Carolina.
Rasmussen now shows the race in this state as 46% to 45% in favor of Romney.  Like North Carolina, 9% of the voters are undecided or currently leaning toward a third party candidate.  The third party candidates typically poll fairly well right up to Election Day, but when the voters enter the booth, they lose at least half their total.  Obama will have to pull a rabbit out of his hat to win Florida.  In 2010, the GOP swept the state, sending RINO Charlie Crist packing and electing Marco Rubio to the Senate while electing Rick Scott (a man carrying a lot a baggage) as governor.  The tea party is strong in Florida and is sure to turn out the vote.  It would be a political calamity for Obama if he doesn’t carry Florida.  He has a very uphill battle ahead.  The polls don’t close in the panhandle of Florida until late, but when they do the race could be over.
Rasmussen has the race in Ohio at 46% to 44% in favor of Romney.  This is an absolute must win state for Obama.  Without Ohio he has virtually no chance of winning re-election.  Obama’s attacks on coal production and his EPA’s attacks on natural gas fracking have put him in a very difficult spot.  Ohio, a traditionally Republican state with John Kasich in the Governor’s mansion, presents a formidable uphill battle for Obama.  It’s hard to see a path to victory in Ohio for Obama.  Put Ohio in Romney’s column.
If all four of these states go for Romney, the race will be over by 9:00 pm Eastern time.  And if these all fall, there’s a good chance that Romney will also win Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Missouri and even Michigan.  It could be a blow out.  Of course, winning big in the East suppresses the vote of the fellow who is losing.  His voters see no reason to turn out.  The result is not only a bigger victory for the winner, but more victories in local and state races.  Such a situation could make it possible for the GOP to not only pick up seats in the US House of Representatives, but also gain a super majority in the US Senate.
But Election Day is still more than 100 days away and much can happen in that length of time.  Even with widespread voter fraud by the Democrats, it is difficult to see a way for Obama to win re-election to the White House. 
Between now and then you and I need to keep working, keep donating, and keep praying for a conservative sweep.

1 comment:

  1. Eberle, you are a fool! You know good and well that Mitt Romney is the same person as character actor Richard Jenkins. There is nothing Chrisitian about telling lies and changing money.

    In Christ,