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Monday, November 11, 2013

Guest Blog: Should Chris Christie be the Republican nominee in 2016?

By William Shaker, President,

Governor Chris Christie’s recent landslide victory has immediately created a buzz. I don’t think it will last for two reasons: 1) He would not survive the Republican primary process and 2) If nominated, he could not win.

1) He would not receive the nomination: To win by a 20 percentage point margin in a hugely Democratic state, he moved so far to the left that he morphed into a Democrat—an Obama clone. He alienated much of the GOP primary voter base when he essentially endorsed Obama at the precise time when Romney was picking up momentum—thus squashing any chance that Romney had for victory. At least I believe this is the feeling of primary voters in the Midwest and the South. The NRA is still a powerful force and Christie insulted NRA supporters when he attacked NRA effort to place guards in schools. Christie attacked an NRA ad that pointed out the school attended by the President’s children employs more than a dozen armed guards. In calling this NRA ad irresponsible, Christie upset Second Amendment supporters. The NRA is so influential with independent voters that even Democrats are reluctant to criticize it. Christie continued to insult Tea Party sympathizers (who make up about one-third of the Republican primary base) by slamming conservative Republicans such Sen. Rand Paul. His appointment to fill the recent NJ Senate vacancy paved the way for victory of a Democrat in the special NJ Senatorial election. He appointed a Democrat as NJ Attorney General, who supports liberal democrat programs, including ObamaCare. And his stance on social issues has alienated self-identified Christian conservatives, another large block of Republican primary voters. Those Republicans who nominated candidates deemed electable—Romney, McCain, Dole—learned their lesson. These folks would vomit on this argument in 2016. A President who would simply do a little less in forwarding the agenda of the liberal left would not be acceptable—would not be able to pull American out of the abyss.

2) If he did receive the Republican nomination he would not win the general election. Many conservative and tea party leaning Republicans would simply stay home. Those pundits who think Democrat leaning voters would vote for Christie instead of a Democrat, such as Hillary Clinton, are not thinking clearly. Why vote for a Democrat light, when they could vote for the real thing.

I believe that Republican primary voters will nominate a candidate who indeed can win—and it will not be a candidate such as George W. Bush who said, “I’ve abandoned free market principles in order to save the free market system.” I believe it will be a candidate such as Dr. Ben Carson, a retired pediatric neurosurgeon. He is a conservative Black patriot who shares the philosophy of Ronald Reagan. He says he is not interested in running for office—he is not a politician, says he is not politically correct. But he does care deeply about our country, and I believe that he could be persuade to run for the nomination. Dr. Carson is speaking widely around the country in support of needed healthcare reform and in opposition to ObamaCare—and the fundamental principles of liberty. Analysis shows that if a Black nominee were to receive 17% of the Black vote, he would win (Herman Cain was polling at more than 30% of the Black vote before he dropped out of the race for personal reasons).

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