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Tuesday, October 30, 2012

Why Romney Will Win Big

Although the so-called mainstream media (MSM) is hoping and praying (maybe not) and doing everything they can to campaign for Obama, it will all go for naught.  The core problem is the general disdain that liberal elites have for the average man.  They think everyone but them is incapable of making the right decisions in life.  They honestly believe that they must take care of the "little people."  They are not the champions of the poor and the downtrodden, they are their worst enemy.  They discourage those who are struggling, they call them victims, and they manipulate them for their own political gain. 

The problem for the left is that the average man and woman is a whole lot smarter than those on the left think they are.  In fact, most of them have more common sense; i.e., wisdom, than those on the left have.  The average man or woman is, in fact, the bedrock of America.  Your everyday American works hard, they take care of their families, they take compassion on others, they volunteer and donate, they attend church, and they love the United States of America.  They correctly view America as a God blessed land, offering hope and opportunity that is not available anywhere else on the face of the earth.  Americans are tolerant, kind, and forgiving, but they have a strong sense of right and wrong that guides them in making hard decisions in life and in politics.  You can fool them once because they expect the best in people, but you can't fool them twice, and that's what the Obama campaign is all about, trying to fool Americans into believing the worst about their neighbors, and about their nation.  That dog won't hunt.

Americans are not a bunch of buffoons as President Obama and his cronies on the left believe.  They will give you the shirt off their back if you need help, but they will take a con artist to the woodshed, especially if he tries to con them a second time.  The 2012 election is the liberal's trip to the woodshed.  They have miscalculated the American people because they really don't believe in the intelligence and wisdom of the average American. 

The left chose a stealth candidate in Barack Obama in 2008.  A neophyte without a resume as a public figure, and the compliant MSM hid the real Barack Obama from the American people.  They refused to report his close ties to SDS radicals Bill Ayres and his wife, Bernadine Dohrn.  They hid the mentorship of Communist Party USA member, Frank Marshall Davis, from public view.  They dismissed the nearly family ties of Barack Obama and Michelle Obama to radical preacher, Jeremiah Wright. 

But it was more than that.  The good nature of the American people caused them to want to elect a black man to the White House as a sign of their good will and concern for the plight of black Americans caught in the web of the liberal establishment that keeps them in perpetual poverty.  Such is the nature of the average American.  While black Americans were thrilled to have someone of their own race in the White House, it was white Americans who gave Obama the needed votes to win.  It was their sign of wishing all black Americans well.  Even those who voted against Barack Obama wanted him to succeed in creating a post racial society, and to build upon the foundation of freedom created by our Founders.  Only those who successfully navigated the fog created by the MSM feared what Barack Obama would do as President.  Sadly, those who looked deeper found a man rigidly bound to an ideology that is the antithesis of that of the Founders.  And today, the failure of that far left ideology is on display for all Americans—higher energy costs, fewer jobs, government takeover of health care, bigger and more intrusive government, voter fraud, soaring debt, and an anti-business attitude. 

But the American people have rallied from their sleep.  They are going to reject a young, inexperienced, and ideologically driven President who is in way over his head.  They don't take kindly to politicians of any stripe who endeavor to manipulate and con them, especially those who do not share their love for America.  This is the situation as I see it…

2010 Was Not an Accident

  • Tea Party is Stronger than Ever.  The Tea Party movement isn't holding massive rallies anymore, instead they have put their efforts into navigating the political process, and mastering the tools of voter turnout, fund raising, communications, etc.  Today's Tea Party movement is stronger, better organized, and more focused and politically effective than ever.  While the much vaunted Occupy Movement never was much more than a rag tag bunch of far left hooligans, the Tea Party movement is built on solid goals and objectives.  Moreover, the folks who lead the various Tea Party groups are smart and canny.  A survey of Tea Party participants shows that these folks are better educated, better informed, and more motivated than the establishment of either political party.  They believe in the United States Constitution and the guiding principles of our Founders.  The Tea Party was responsible for launching the political careers of talented individuals like Allen West and nearly 80 other members of Congress.  This movement is still in its early stages and will be a potent force in this year's election and for years to come.  Just as the Tea Party led the GOP to victory in 2010, they will be leading the way in 2012.
  • Nothing has Changed.  Almost nothing has changed from 2010, politically speaking, except that the intensity of conservatives is, if anything, even stronger than ever.  While it is true that the turnout in 2012 will be larger than it was in 2010, the Obama base is not energized according to any surveys.  African Americans are morally incensed by Obama's endorsement of gay marriage that was made for fund raising purposes.  In addition, they are dissatisfied (as they should be) with the exceptionally high unemployment rate in the black community.  Yes, the MSM is fully in the tank for Obama and the Democrats, but the only thing different than the past is the complete partisan approach that reporters and writers in the MSM are taking.  Counterbalancing that is the fact that more people watched the Fox News Channel when the Presidential Debates were on than they did  CBS, NBC or ABC.  It is, thus, much harder for the MSM to hide the truth about what is going on in the campaign from the American people.  The $400 million Obama campaign ad effort to portray Romney as a heartless, cruel, mean spirited person went up in smoke after the first debate.  There is no reason to believe that the outcome of the 2012 election will be significantly different than the outcome of the 2010 election.  Part of the reason for that is explained by the fact that…
  • The Democrats are Still in Denial.  That's right, the Democrats are still in denial about the significance of the Tea Party movement.  They have not accepted the fact that 2010 was a sea change election that changed the political landscape, if not forever, certainly for the foreseeable future.  The Tea Party not only impacted the Republican Party, but also the entire political landscape.  It brought about the sweeping electoral victory in 2010 that ran from the halls of Congress to state houses, court houses, and to city halls.  It was, in many ways, quite similar to the sweeping victory of the Democrats in 1928.  There was no presidential election that year, but the Democrats won Congress, state legislatures, governorships, county council races and city council.  Even after that sweeping election, the Republicans were still in denial.  They said, as the Democrats say today, that it was just a "change" election and believed that it would all come back their way in 1930 and 1932, but just the opposite happened.  It won't happen for the Democrats in 2012 either.  This will be another big victory for the Republican Party, and especially for Tea Party activists.
  • Stay-at-Home Republicans.  In 2008 more than 10 million Christians and/or conservatives sat out the election.  This was due to either non-interest in the Republican nominee, John McCain, or outright dislike of the nominee.  Today, these folks are energized and ready to roll.  They are no longer sitting on the fence, dissatisfied, or uninterested.  They will turn out in this critical election year and provide the margin needed for a big victory that may reach landslide proportions.

Delusional Poll Selection

Almost all the polling numbers for the 2012 presidential election are based on the Democrat and Republican turnouts (percentage wise) in 2008.  There are many problems with that approach.  The primary problem is that it ignores the 2010 sea change election that changed the political landscape.  The substance of this change is that while in 2008 the majority of the American people identified themselves as Democrats (9% advantage for Democrats), in 2012 the majority of voters identify themselves as Republicans (1% advantage for Republicans).  This is a huge turnaround, even though the advantage for the GOP is minimal. 

In spite of these changes, most pollsters are using the 2008 model and totally ignoring the 2010 model.  The notable exceptions are Rasmussen and Gallup, both of which are showing a victory for Romney.  Moreover, the internal polling of the candidates also shows this situation.  The over-polling of Democrats by 10% means just one thing.  It means the polling firm is assuming the intensity of the Democratic voters (or the Democratic ground game for getting out the vote) will result in a higher percentage of identified Democrats voting than identified Republicans voting.  There two major problems with this assumption.  First, all surveys indicate that the Republican base is more energized than the Democrat base.  Second, by all accounts, the Republican ground game is as good as or better than the Democratic get-out-the-vote ground game in 2012.  The GOP was behind in this area in 2008, but they have caught up and possibly passed the Democrats.

But does this still mean a big, sea change victory?  Oversampling by 10 points is misleading.  For instance, if a sample of 1,000 prospective voters includes 300 independents, 400 Democrats and 300 Republicans it is in statistical error by 33%.  It has under-sampled Republicans by at least 33% (100 divided by 300 = 33%).  The impact of this over-sampling is enormous.  Some of the current polls show Obama in the lead 49% to 47% for Romney.  If you correct the oversampling to 50/50, the result is 56.6% for Romney and 43.4% for Obama!  I am not saying that the election will be a landslide for Romney, but it does have that potential.

Finally, no candidate for president who was behind the challenger at this point in the campaign has ever lost the race for president.  Both the Rasmussen polls and the Gallup polls have Romney ahead.  Rasmussen gives Romney an edge 49% to 47% with 2% undecided.  Gallup gives Romney the lead by 4%.  While both of these polls are subject to a ±3% error factor, they do not take into account the fact that for the last 40 years…

Undecided Votes Go to the Challenger

That's right, historically all undecided votes go to the challenger (except for Ronald Reagan who was, in fact, an exceptional candidate and an exceptional president).  In fact, the Friday prior to the 1980 election, when Reagan was running against Carter, the Gallup poll showed Carter winning by 3%.  It did not look promising.  It was another case of oversampling Democrats.

The results, of course, looked quite different.  Reagan won by 8,423,115 votes with a 10% victory over Carter, even though turncoat Republican John Anderson was in the race and won 5,719,850 votes, denying Reagan 6.6% of the vote total.  It was a stunning election victory that befuddled the left and their allies in the MSM.  Reagan not only won the White House, but thanks to his coattails, the Republicans also took control of the US Senate and added seats in the House of Representatives. 

Benghazi Attack Scandal

Do not underestimate the impact of the Benghazi Scandal that resulted in the deaths of four Americans, including our ambassador.  The confusing and contradictory and ever changing stories that keep coming out belie a scandal of likely great proportions.  While President Obama professes that he finds "offensive" any suggestion that politics controlled his actions in this matter, that assertion is questionable, at best.

While it is unlikely that we will hear the truth before election day, and it is likely that the shredders in the White House are working overtime, the truth will eventually come out.  Why, because more than 300 people were recipients of the emails and messages sent out by the White House and those on the ground in Benghazi.  A conspiracy designed to block the truth when 300 individuals received emails is impossible to contain or manage.

Members of the CIA fast response team have reported that three times they asked for permission to go to the consulate and rescue the ambassador and others there, and three times they were denied permission.  These are hard, unimpeachable sources that tell an ignoble, sad story.  Was it concern that a terrorist attack would disrupt the PR narrative of the recent Democratic Convention, that the terrorist threat had subsided, that deterred the President from giving the go-ahead needed to save these men?  Was it gross ineptitude?  In either case, it is dereliction of duty by the Commander in Chief.

There is a distinct possibility that before election day honorable men will come forward, putting risk to their careers, and tell the truth.  If that should happen, even the MSM will not be able to keep a lid on this scandal.

2008 Was High Water Mark of American Liberalism

As I have noted before, the 2008 election victory of Barack Obama was likely the high water mark of the left in America, just as Pickett's charge was the high water mark of the Confederacy.  The Barack Obama of 2008 was a mythical character, concocted by the campaign and supported by the MSM.  His lack of experience, his association with domestic terrorists (Ayres and Dohrn) and assorted radicals of the far left (Jeremiah Wright and Frank Marshall Davis), and his votes as an Illinois State Senator for killing babies who were born alive due to a botched abortion, were ignored by the MSM.  In 2008, the Obama Chicago machine with the full compliance of the MSM created a false narrative of Barack Obama, but that false narrative has been punctured by books, articles, and extensive reports.  That exposé, combined with the utter failure of the Obama policies and his running rough shod over the US Constitution, has created a mountain of opposition to his re-election.

For all of the reasons provide above, I am confident that Mitt Romney will win a substantial election victory, somewhere in the 53% to 56% range. 

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